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Vinod Khosla is a venture capitalist's
venture capitalist. He's from the same mould
as people like Arthur Rock (Fairchild and
Intel), John Doerr (Sun Microsystems) and
Don Valentine (Apple and Cisco). These venture
investors understood the technology and
the business; they were instrumental in
building companies that changed the way
people worked and created over $150 billion
of wealth. Statistics show that Khosla's
companies created six jobs for every day
he spent in the US. He was responsible for
creation of companies like Juniper, Cerent,
and Siara. And like a true VC, Khosla has
been instrumental in founding and running
large companies: Daisy Systems and Sun.
All these companies were instrumental in
making the Internet faster, better and cheaper.
At Sun, he was in the formidable founding
team of Scott McNealy, Andreas Bechtolshiem,
and Bill Joy.
And the man is prescient. He was on a sabbatical
from his firm, Kleiner Perkins, in 1992
when he noticed that sending an email from
IIT Delhi was difficult. He set about trying
to find a way to speed up the Internet,
as it were. Every six weeks he would go
back to the Kleiner Perkins office in the
US for a few days, and during those 20-hour
flights he mastered optical networks. Twelve
years later, optical networks are now a
standard.
Now, he is taking time off again. And this
time he is trying to make capitalism better,
faster and cheaper. His goal is to develop
a business model that will ensure that poor
and dispossessed people can access the global
capitalist system. It makes sense. One of
the biggest challenges before all countries
is to get more disenfranchised people to
join the capitalist system. Without more
participation, capitalism will just remain
a system the rich impose on the poor. Us
and them. It is not a trivial problem, and
it is truly worthy of Khosla. Businessworld's
Shishir Prasad spoke to Vinod Khosla to
find out how he views modern capitalism
and what he still finds exciting in technology.
Excerpts...
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The last time
you took a sabbatical you virtually conceptualised
optical networking and the way the backbone
of the Internet worked. You have again
taken a sabbatical of sorts, what can
we expect?
You know, there is no one thing. I have
always had a lot of interests and where
my mind goes, it goes. I don't pre-direct
it. You know, there are some things related
to development in a place like India that
are of interest to me, hence my interest
in microfinance. On my website you will
see a paper on what I call the 'bicycle
commute economy' for rural India. And
that is very much like the Providing Urban
amenities in Rural Areas (PURA) idea that
President Kalam has. So I have interests
that are both development-related and
technical.
- What about
the technical side? Do you see any key
shifts there?
I would say, in general, that information
and computer technology is given a lot
of attention. The same kind of renovation
is possible in other areas of technology.
And so I look at what the big social problems
are. I think communication is one of them,
though I think communication, as a problem,
is fast disappearing. We have an energy
problem, for example. We have a resources
problem. A wide range of areas, from energy
to housing to environment, all have technical
solutions. I think technology can work
productively in all those areas. Energy,
material science - those are things that
I think are interesting. I do things out
of technical curiosity. I don't do things
because they are good business or because
there is a big market for those things.
Of course, there is a big market, and
that is interesting. Big markets are always
interesting. But it has to be interesting
to me technically, and in terms of social
impact. Technology is most useful when
it has a social impact.
- Why do you
find microfinance so interesting?
Microfinance is simply applying the principles
of free markets and capitalism to the
poorest people. That is what is interesting.
It is more about the economic system of
capitalism and how to enable it for people
who have been outside of it. I have always
been intrigued about how to help people
who are not affected by technology. India
has done great in IT, but it makes no
difference to people in the villages.
It is not material to them. The question
is: in that spectrum, what can you do
to be impactful and help? You know, the
technology stuff can really help the country
overall. It can really help the engineering
graduates or graduates in architecture,
but most people do not have graduate degrees
or specialised professional degrees. People
in rural India do not have any of that
.
- But doesn't
technological change create economic possibilities?
When you look at the poor, how can you
create that economic possibility?
I think if you visit Bangladesh you will
see how much wealth can be created for
those people. Look, India needs to achieve
a 10% GDP growth, and that is difficult
unless the rural economy starts growing
at 10% a year. Even if the industrial
economy grows at 10%, rural economy is
such a large percentage of our economy
it will drag everything down unless it
grows too. And so we will see a much bigger
economic divide between the rural and
the urban unless we do something about
accelerating the economic growth of rural
India. I believe microfinance is a very,
very powerful tool. In fact, it is the
only tool with a potential to revolutionise
growth in rural India. That's why it is
important. It is not only important for
the macro numbers of economic growth to
be great, but we also must distribute
wealth creation. I believe the other social
problems we are going to have are 'mega-cities'.
- What is the
problem with them?
There are economic forecasts that see
cities like Delhi becoming full of 30
million residents. Mega-cities will result
in mega-slums. Cities that are large lead
to a break-down of social structure. Families
get broken up because people move to cities
to find work. Crime increases because
people migrate to the cities. And those
on the margins in the cities can succumb
to drinking or HIV.
The idea of mega-cities is a bad idea.
And unless we do something to change it,
we are going to have a mega-problem. The
only thing to do is to make the future
interesting for the rural poor. That will
slow down the migration to the urban mega-centres.
And that is a really, really important
concept. The very structure of economic
development in the nation needs to change.
China has the same problem, Mexico has
the same problem, Brazil has the same
problem.
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A
RISCy venture
Vinod
Khosla's paper on the 'bicycle
commute economy' is actually
nothing short of a Marshall
Plan for the reconstruction
of rural India. The plan
is called Rural Infrastructure
Services for Commons (RISC).
Power, telecommunications,
transportation and finance
are the things that go into
making the infrastructure
layer of the plan.
Isn't that what the government
has been trying to do all
this while? Yes, but Khosla's
approach is slightly different,
if not completely original.
He believes a sum of $1
million is enough to provide
such services to a group
of 100,000 people in the
rural areas. To cover the
approximately 500 million
people living in the rural
areas, Khosla believes a
total investment of about
$5 billion is needed. The
crucial part of the programme
is that each of these 5,000
villages (of approximately
1 lakh population each)
receives the investment
directly. And the village
doesn't get it as a grant
- entrepreneurs in the village
who want to run such services
get this based on a business
plan of sorts. This is a
distributed (federated,
if you will) model, not
a centralised model as is
conventionally practiced.
Khosla believes that if
this investment increases
the output per 100,000 people
by just 10%, it will be
enough to pay for all these
services. The key to increasing
these services are the motivated
rural entrepreneurs. It
is these people who, once
they have access to funds,
will start businesses that
will provide employment
and RISC services, thereby
kickstarting the rural economy.
For more information on
the plan visit:
www.kpcb.com/files/bios/RISCAug.2003.doc
and read the frequently
asked questions section
given at the end of the
document.
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- Improving
the rural economy is a noble idea, but
how do you do it with the feudal structure
that is there, and in absence of any governmental
reforms? Is there a business model that
you have seen?
Clearly, microfinance does not require
any of those changes. I am not saying
some of those mindset changes aren't good.
I think the government is trying to do
the right thing. Political process moves
slowly and social changes happen slowly.
You have to acknowledge that. But this
[microfinance] is a tool that doesn't
interrupt or interfere with any of that,
and it can work without that change. In
fact, it accelerates that change but is
not totally dependent on it. It is an
independent axis of economic development.
The government can keep doing things to
help people from within the political
structure, and there will be some good
things about it. In the end, what is important
is that this tool goes directly to those
who are below the poverty line. It enables
them, and it helps them sell. And there
are thousands, if not millions, of stories
in Bangladesh alone.
- Did you find
anything interesting in India?
Well, if you look at the rural side, organised
entities like Share Microfin, Andana,
SKS and CashPor are proving you can do
this amongst the most backward areas of
eastern Uttar Pradesh - places where people
said nothing can be done. Now if there
is CashPor in eastern Uttar Pradesh, Share
in Andhra Pradesh, Andana in Andhra Pradesh
and Karnataka, Grameen Kuta in Karnataka,
ASA in Tamil Nadu, then we are on the
cusp of something very, very exciting.
And most of these organisations are very
exciting. They are driven by people who
are very, very entrepreneurial. They are
CEOs who really want to make this work
and make money. Exactly the Silicon Valley
model. You know, all these organisations
resemble Silicon Valley companies, though
they are not technology companies.
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| Khosla
wants these people to
make profit - by becoming
rural entrepeneurs |
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- That's interesting.
In what way are these organisations like
Silicon Valley companies?
In their entrepreneurial approach. The
CEOs of these organisations are the Silicon
Valley entrepreneurs of rural India...
One would normally associate Bangalore
with that tag...
Well, there is Silicon Valley in Bangalore
too, but that is more on the technical
side. All I am saying is that there is
a similar phenomenon happening. On the
rural side, there are equally good entrepreneurs.
And if we can build the infrastructure
to support them, it will be the way rural
India becomes a more attractive place.
- Silicon Valley
has its venture funds - are there similar
entities that can help these entrepreneurs
in rural India?
I think there will be. I think ICICI is
being very active. They have a gentleman
called Nachiket Mor who is very active
in this. You know, like a financier for
this. I think some of the state governments
are doing a good job. There are a number
of organisations in the US, like Unicus
and Grameen USA, who are helping the organisations
in rural India, . Professor Muhammad Yunus
is doing a lot to help other countries
- not just India but all over the world.
They have what are called Grameen replicators.
They replicate the Grameen model. I find
it pretty exciting.
- Apart from
microfinance, where else do you see interesting
work happening?
All the material science stuff, sometimes
called nanotechnology. I think that is
absolutely exciting, and it will change
the world over the next 25 years. And
I think we will have a dotcom [bubble]
of that. Too much hype, too much bubble,
over-expectation. But over the long term
it will change the world. I think there
will be a revolution in energy. In biology,
we will see a revolution too, and that
is why I think India should invest in
biotechnology, especially in areas like
stem cells. I think there is a lot of
exciting stuff going on. I think people
have realised that [the sort of] innovation
that happened in information technology
can also happen in other areas.
- Do we understand
the end-effects of biological tinkering
as we understand the cause-effect relationships
in IT?
Yes. It is just starting to happen. That's
why I think it is so exciting. Over the
next 25 years, that will absolutely happen.
Systems biology is a whole new way to
understand how humans work. And that is
the basis for personalised medicine. For
example, if there are five million people
with HIV, a different drug might work
for each person based on their genetic
make-up. So you administer a drug based
on that person's genetics, not the same
drug for all five million people. These
are different people, their bodies are
different, and if you tailor the drug
to each person's biology, that is personalised
medicine. I think this will be a huge
area of revolution.
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What
is microfinance?
Microfinance
is a hard term to define.
If a self-help group gives
money to someone to buy
a cycle-rickshaw, it is
considered microfinance.
Yet if a commercial bank
does the same thing, it
is not considered microfinance.
In India, the term is generally
understood to mean small
loans given to the poor
by NGOs to help start small
businesses. The world over,
microfinance is synonymous
with the Grameen Bank in
Bangladesh. In Bangaldesh,
microfinance arose in direct
response to the failure
of the nationalised commercial
banks to cater to the needs
of the poor and marginalised.
Professor Muhammad Yunus
started research on effective
delivery of credit to rural
poor, which later grew into
a mammoth microcredit programme
under the name Grameen Bank.
In 1983, after tasting success,
the project was converted
into an independent bank
by government legislation.
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- Talking of
revolutions, a big wave entrepreneurship
just went by. Some of it was good. Some
not so good. What have learnt from there?
You know, the digital revolution isn't
done. It will continue for the next 10-12
years. Its biggest impact is yet to come.
What we do know is that people get overly
excited, and because of that things get
hyped. And then, when things get hyped
you get a bubble and it crashes. That
happens in every new technology. It happened
in 1850 with the railroads in England.
There was huge excitement about the railroad
technology between 1835 and 1850, and
then there was a huge crash on the London
stock markets in 1850. And the 20 years
after the crash was when most of the railroads
got built. And that's just the way it
is.
We will see a nanotechnology bubble. And
after the bubble, people will go back
to a rational way of thinking and a rational
way of doing things. Doing things not
because stock markets like them, but because
they have economic value. That always
happens after the hype is done.
- But then,
why is there so much despondency in the
IT world? People like Larry Ellison have
said how technology is commoditised...
See, despondency reflects short-term thinking.
People who have no vision say this. It
is the people who think short-term. It
is the people who think something going
up and down in the stock markets is the
definition of success. Success is defined
by the impact something has on the lives
of people.
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